By Steve Knipper Guest Columnist
July 16, 2022
The next year proves to be interesting as we are seeing an uptick in regular citizens waking up, and ruffling the feathers of those who forgot they are servants. Naturally, many have been contacting us, sharing their thoughts on the array of Republican candidates for Kentucky's next Governor. Hopefully, with Kentuckians having about over a whole year to research and act, we will end up with a true Patriot to lead us. The Primary Election for Governor is in the Spring of 2023.
Last month's data here.
Hear what the People are saying, according to Stephen Knipper's Election Poll:
"Here’s the latest poll. (461 Registered Republican voters for the Republican vote for Governor. Beshear’s poll was 248 Dems/241 Republicans.)
*Qualifier: I’m just the messenger. These are not my comments but those from the poll.*
Next one in August.
Now, before I get hate mail from all sides let me tell you the overview and comments that I think tell the story that is forming.
In short, if you have ties with the established Republican party you’re losing support despite endorsements or money raised. That plays true for Cameron the most but also Quarles who despite his endorsements from all over he is losing support.
Biggest reason for Quarles decline: A single guy doesn’t have the life experience to be Governor and identify with the struggles of raising a family. Second, his perceived deep ties to establishment Republicans and being a career politician.
Daniel Cameron is losing ground on three fronts, links to establishment, breaking a pledge to run for AG twice and thirdly, no marked accomplishments as AG. Many comments said he was distant” to people on many issues including looking into corruption in government.
Eric Deters went down after he separated himself from Trump. Trump’s endorsement for Cameron seemed to place the nail in the coffin of the Deters campaign despite his pledge to be “Trumps man in the race.”
Harmon and Maddox are both up but its a mixed bag. Harmon, with the most positives but least money of any candidate presently is trending in a great position without an active campaign schedule. Harmon’s strength: honesty and no hidden agenda or allegiance to anyone. His negatives limit his reach because he is seen as short on vision.
Maddox has conservative marks but life experience is her Achille’s heel in the polling data. People may like her, but don’t think she has the life experience to make a strong Governor. Secondly, many believe she doesn’t really want the Gubenatorial position but is using the time to increase name ID for a different office. Strangely, she also has seen an uptick in the perception she takes credit for things she isn’t directly responsible for, but honestly, that’s every person running so I don’t know why that is associated just to her.
Kelly Craft, who is rumored to join later has a huge credibility factor with voters. A very large portion of voters perceive her as a wealthy opportunist who has establishment ties that harken back to Bevin and McConnell. Despite her wealth and experience in the Trump Administration many don’t want to consider a Governor Craft. Ironically, Trumps endorsement of Cameron seems to support the voters thoughts because even her former boss obviously has reservations with her abilities or experience in state government.
The most interesting fact is that the undecideds keep going up. Despite excellent fundraising, milk ads and big campaign kick offs Kentuckians are not sold on any one candidate, but its early and the fall always brings surprises.
Worse yet for those candidates who want to try to win by being a regional candidate who gets enough safe votes in their area to overcome a large pool of candidates statewide.
The candidates will find there is some pockets of support but none favoring any one of the declared candidates from another. Regional support and dominance of at least three regions are still going to be needed to win and no one is there yet. Beshear continues to free fall despite a massive war-chest. His falling numbers are key indicators that an incumbent is in trouble especially when you factor the number of Republican registrations keep going up and Beshear is being seen as tied with Michael Adams in the voting drop box scandal that is a direct tie to the 2000 mules movie that was released."